Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Why western countries are using double standards ?

After the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, the West nervously waited for similar uprisings in the "Arab Street." Practically nothing changed in the Arab world in the last 30 years. In 2011regimes in Tunisia and Egypt have been overthrown by the peoples' demonstrations; the uprising in Libya has forced the international community to take military action against  Gadhafi; Yemen is witnessing bloody chaos; Syria is showing signs of serious unrest and Saudi Arabia intervened in Bahrain to crush the opposition.


         So far, none of the peoples' movements have been directed against the West. It was not "Western imperialism" but a combination of domestic political repression, youth unemployment, heightened expectations and socio-economic deprivation that mobilized Arab masses.Unfortunately, this positive dynamic may soon come to an end.In the eyes of many Arabs in the region, a deeply troubling Western double standard is emerging. Why is the West willing to intervene in Libya, while there is total Western silence about the brutal suppression of dissidents in Bahrain?
The West appears to be quite selective in lending its support to the "Arab Spring." The lesson that many are drawing is that two distinct standards apply to Arab citizens' rights. In countries like Libya, Egypt and Tunisia, the world will accept or actively support constitutional changes that citizens of those countries demand. In other Arab countries, like Bahrain, the rights of citizens are secondary to wider energy and security needs."
The fact that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sent troops to Bahrain clearly shows that these energy-producing conservative Arab countries are deeply worried about a spillover of unrest into their own countries.
But such Western security concerns don't change the question that millions of Arab youth are asking: Why should the U.N. principle of "responsibility to protect" apply only to countries like Libya and leave Bahrain and Yemen out in the cold? Surely all regimes in the region are not equally brutal. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or Yemen may appear to have more legitimacy than Gadhafi's regime in Libya, yet the Yemeni and Bahraini governments have shown no mercy against protesters. The double standard is also obvious in the Saudi behavior. The Saudis have backed intervention in Libya to help the rebels at the same moment as they have sent troops into Bahrain to help suppress a rebellion.

Unless Europe and the United States become more consistent in their support for democracy in the region, soon it will be radical Islamists and enemies of the West that will have the upper hand in mass demonstrations. But in the case of India, as we can expect India will shy away from taking position either side. At the end of the day India is never been in this process & it never will !!

Thursday, 17 March 2011

Evaluation of Rupee from 1950's to 2011

Through out the history of Independent India, Curren Since 1950's , India ran continued trade deficits that increased in magnitude in the 1960s. Furthermore, the Government of India had a budget deficit problem and could not borrow money from abroad or from the private corporate sector, due to that sector’s negative savings rate. As a result, the government issued bonds to the RBI, which increased the money supply, leading to inflation. In 1966, foreign aid, which was hitherto a key factor in preventing devaluation of the rupee was finally cut off and India was told it had to liberalise its restrictions on trade before foreign aid would again materialise. The response was the politically unpopular step of devaluation accompanied by liberalisation. Furthermore, The Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 led the US and other countries friendly towards Pakistan to withdraw foreign aid to India, which further necessitated devaluation. Defence spending in 1965/1966 was 24.06% of total expenditure, the highest it has been in the period from 1965 to 1989 . The second factor is the drought of 1965/1966. The sharp rise in prices in this period, which led to devaluation, was often blamed on the drought by government.
At the end of 1969, the Indian Rupee was trading at around 13 British Pence. A decade later, by 1979, it was trading at around 6 British Pence. Finally by the end of 1989, the Indian Rupee had plunged to an all-time low of 3 British Pence. This triggered the onset of a wave of irreversible liberalisation reforms away from populist measures.

1991 Economic crisis

In 1991, India still had a fixed exchange rate system, where the rupee was pegged to the value of a basket of currencies of major trading partners. India started having balance of payments problems since 1985, and by the end of 1990, it found itself in serious economic trouble. The government was close to default and its foreign exchange reserves had dried up to the point that India could barely finance three weeks’ worth of imports. As in 1966, India faced high inflation and large government budget deficits. This led the government to devalue the rupee.
At the end of 1999, the Indian Rupee was devalued considerably.

 Revaluation

In the period 2000–2007, the Rupee stopped declining and stabilized ranging between 1 USD = INR 44–48. In recent times, the Indian Rupee had begun to gain value and by 2007 traded around 39 Rs to 1 US dollar , on sustained foreign investment flows into the country. This posed problems for major exporters and BPO firms located in the country. The trend has reversed lately with the 2008 world financial crisis. The changes in the relative value of the rupee has reflected that of most currencies, e.g. the British Pound, which had gained value against the dollar and then has lost value again with the recession of 2008.

Valuation history





























Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Things to remember before intraday trading

  • If index is in positive from yesterday and the share you are holding is in minus then it should be cut and if intraday trend of index is in buy then one should buy a stock in which is in plus.
  • If index is in minus then one should look to short stocks which are minus and not stocks which are in plus.
  • It is not necessary that a stock which is weak today during intraday trading might be weak tomorrow also, simultaneously if a stock is strong today might not be strong tomorrow
  • If US Markets have gone up overnight, the markets here in all probability will open strong, so one should be quite careful when buying stocks as the general psychology of public is to buy when good news is there.
  • Being a contrarians is very important while trading intraday.
  • Stop loss is a must while trading intraday.
  • Always trade in very liquid stocks i.e. which have very high volume because as entry and exit can be very fast in such stocks.
  • Do paper trading before you actually start trading so that when you start making paper profits, then shift to actual trading.
  • Keep your volume constant e.g.: if you trade in five lots of nifty future then trade in five lots only. This position can be increased only when you are satisfied with your trading for a month. It should not be that one day you buy five lots and next day you trade in ten lots and third day you get a loss and stop trading for two days.
  • Fear and Greed are at maximum levels while trading intraday so always have less position when you are new to intraday trading as otherwise you will be mostly under tension.