Tuesday 29 March, 2011

Why western countries are using double standards ?

After the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, the West nervously waited for similar uprisings in the "Arab Street." Practically nothing changed in the Arab world in the last 30 years. In 2011regimes in Tunisia and Egypt have been overthrown by the peoples' demonstrations; the uprising in Libya has forced the international community to take military action against  Gadhafi; Yemen is witnessing bloody chaos; Syria is showing signs of serious unrest and Saudi Arabia intervened in Bahrain to crush the opposition.


         So far, none of the peoples' movements have been directed against the West. It was not "Western imperialism" but a combination of domestic political repression, youth unemployment, heightened expectations and socio-economic deprivation that mobilized Arab masses.Unfortunately, this positive dynamic may soon come to an end.In the eyes of many Arabs in the region, a deeply troubling Western double standard is emerging. Why is the West willing to intervene in Libya, while there is total Western silence about the brutal suppression of dissidents in Bahrain?
The West appears to be quite selective in lending its support to the "Arab Spring." The lesson that many are drawing is that two distinct standards apply to Arab citizens' rights. In countries like Libya, Egypt and Tunisia, the world will accept or actively support constitutional changes that citizens of those countries demand. In other Arab countries, like Bahrain, the rights of citizens are secondary to wider energy and security needs."
The fact that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sent troops to Bahrain clearly shows that these energy-producing conservative Arab countries are deeply worried about a spillover of unrest into their own countries.
But such Western security concerns don't change the question that millions of Arab youth are asking: Why should the U.N. principle of "responsibility to protect" apply only to countries like Libya and leave Bahrain and Yemen out in the cold? Surely all regimes in the region are not equally brutal. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or Yemen may appear to have more legitimacy than Gadhafi's regime in Libya, yet the Yemeni and Bahraini governments have shown no mercy against protesters. The double standard is also obvious in the Saudi behavior. The Saudis have backed intervention in Libya to help the rebels at the same moment as they have sent troops into Bahrain to help suppress a rebellion.

Unless Europe and the United States become more consistent in their support for democracy in the region, soon it will be radical Islamists and enemies of the West that will have the upper hand in mass demonstrations. But in the case of India, as we can expect India will shy away from taking position either side. At the end of the day India is never been in this process & it never will !!

Thursday 17 March, 2011

Evaluation of Rupee from 1950's to 2011

Through out the history of Independent India, Curren Since 1950's , India ran continued trade deficits that increased in magnitude in the 1960s. Furthermore, the Government of India had a budget deficit problem and could not borrow money from abroad or from the private corporate sector, due to that sector’s negative savings rate. As a result, the government issued bonds to the RBI, which increased the money supply, leading to inflation. In 1966, foreign aid, which was hitherto a key factor in preventing devaluation of the rupee was finally cut off and India was told it had to liberalise its restrictions on trade before foreign aid would again materialise. The response was the politically unpopular step of devaluation accompanied by liberalisation. Furthermore, The Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 led the US and other countries friendly towards Pakistan to withdraw foreign aid to India, which further necessitated devaluation. Defence spending in 1965/1966 was 24.06% of total expenditure, the highest it has been in the period from 1965 to 1989 . The second factor is the drought of 1965/1966. The sharp rise in prices in this period, which led to devaluation, was often blamed on the drought by government.
At the end of 1969, the Indian Rupee was trading at around 13 British Pence. A decade later, by 1979, it was trading at around 6 British Pence. Finally by the end of 1989, the Indian Rupee had plunged to an all-time low of 3 British Pence. This triggered the onset of a wave of irreversible liberalisation reforms away from populist measures.

1991 Economic crisis

In 1991, India still had a fixed exchange rate system, where the rupee was pegged to the value of a basket of currencies of major trading partners. India started having balance of payments problems since 1985, and by the end of 1990, it found itself in serious economic trouble. The government was close to default and its foreign exchange reserves had dried up to the point that India could barely finance three weeks’ worth of imports. As in 1966, India faced high inflation and large government budget deficits. This led the government to devalue the rupee.
At the end of 1999, the Indian Rupee was devalued considerably.

 Revaluation

In the period 2000–2007, the Rupee stopped declining and stabilized ranging between 1 USD = INR 44–48. In recent times, the Indian Rupee had begun to gain value and by 2007 traded around 39 Rs to 1 US dollar , on sustained foreign investment flows into the country. This posed problems for major exporters and BPO firms located in the country. The trend has reversed lately with the 2008 world financial crisis. The changes in the relative value of the rupee has reflected that of most currencies, e.g. the British Pound, which had gained value against the dollar and then has lost value again with the recession of 2008.

Valuation history





























Tuesday 22 February, 2011

Things to remember before intraday trading

  • If index is in positive from yesterday and the share you are holding is in minus then it should be cut and if intraday trend of index is in buy then one should buy a stock in which is in plus.
  • If index is in minus then one should look to short stocks which are minus and not stocks which are in plus.
  • It is not necessary that a stock which is weak today during intraday trading might be weak tomorrow also, simultaneously if a stock is strong today might not be strong tomorrow
  • If US Markets have gone up overnight, the markets here in all probability will open strong, so one should be quite careful when buying stocks as the general psychology of public is to buy when good news is there.
  • Being a contrarians is very important while trading intraday.
  • Stop loss is a must while trading intraday.
  • Always trade in very liquid stocks i.e. which have very high volume because as entry and exit can be very fast in such stocks.
  • Do paper trading before you actually start trading so that when you start making paper profits, then shift to actual trading.
  • Keep your volume constant e.g.: if you trade in five lots of nifty future then trade in five lots only. This position can be increased only when you are satisfied with your trading for a month. It should not be that one day you buy five lots and next day you trade in ten lots and third day you get a loss and stop trading for two days.
  • Fear and Greed are at maximum levels while trading intraday so always have less position when you are new to intraday trading as otherwise you will be mostly under tension.

Thursday 13 January, 2011

Sagarika Ghose, Arunadhti Roy, MF Hussain & tweeples


                 The above tweet shows her intellectualism and apparently her arrogance is well documented.. Her writings in Hindustan times are merely choppy rhetoric. How a person can be " liberal" when he/she is crawling in the feet of minorities and at the same time barking at majority, day in day out. Her support for Arunadhti Roy & MF Husain is familiar for most information seekers... But every unbiased educated Indians knew who they are!!!

Arunadhti Roy is a dishonest hypocrite who most shamelessly applies double standards- she justifies killing of 72 CRPF jawans at the hands of Maoists and calls a religious frenzy in Kashmir a freedom struggle knowing fully well that they are responsible for ethnic cleansing in the valley throwing tens of thousands of Kashmiri Pandits out of their homes. Arundhati Roy is a typical example of such parasitical elements within India who benefit from its generosity while stabbing thier motherland in the back... Just winning a prize doesn't make her an intellectual.I dont accept a single word coming out of her mouth and i am dying to see her rotting in a jail for life.I dont care if she gets noble peace prize.

Nobody needs intro for MF Hussain:
 If MF Hussain is a liberal then the cartoonist of Muhammad is the greatest liberal. How can painting n*de pictures of hindu g0ddesses be part of anyone's freedom ? Will MF Hussain paint n*de pic of his Pr0phet ? Isn't it a deliberate provocation ? Still no one tried to kill him and the over clever mullah chose to run away. These are the pseudo intellectuals are deliberately stepping on their nerves to provoke anger as the only thing these Indian joker intellectuals understand from west is that they have to make some people angry.. very angry ..than they will become intellectual.. By going through this one can understand why tweeples are angry over Sagarika Ghose & her pseudo secular views..

India is the only country where people who mock its culture and religion are called 'intellectuals' and 'liberals' and given special status...

Note: The content in this post are purely personal .

Wednesday 5 January, 2011

how to pick the right stock in Jhunjhunwala's way

If you’re a proponent of value investing, which involves buying stocks that offer value when they’re cheap and holding on to them till they achieve their potential — Warren Buffet style — here are tips from India’s own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, that you may use.
— Jhunjhunwala’s advice to investors is not to look for companies that would give profits but understand factors that help in creating profits. “Don’t emphasise too much on analysis of profits,” he says. “Profits are created due to various stages of circumstances. I always look at how large is the opportunity for that business in the sector.”
He recalls how he bought Praj Industries, a bio-ethanol company that gave him large returns. “When I bought Praj, we thought there would be a humongous demand for ethanol. The opportunity was huge but it was not recognized.”
IT bellwether Infosys, he said, benefited because of the internet revolution. “Nobody knew about Infosys in 1993 but Infosys could become Infosys because the opportunity for the internet went through the roof.”
“When opportunities come, they can come through technology, marketing, brands, value protections, capital, etc. You need to be able to spot those.”
— “Then I look at scalability of a particular company that I choose in a sector,” Jhunjhunwala says. “A friend of mine asked me: should I invest in a small cap or largecap? I said we must invest in the smallcaps, which will be the largecaps. The biggest challenge of investing is that you should recognise whether organization has the ability to scale.”
Jhunjhunwala says he makes an investing decision by understanding how a company’s profits may grow in the next four-five years, and by that account, its price-to-earnings and valuation. “If I succeed in making the right call, then after four-five years, I do a proper re-examination of the business model and accordingly reallocate capital because the business model can undergo change. Intense competition could emerge in that sector,” he says. “This is when I examine the earlier opinion I had made when I first bought, whether those assumptions still were valid.”
— How should you spot a good company? “You can have an idea by looking at companies’ capital raising. Are they distributing profits, are they using the surpluses in the right manner,” he says. “For me, quarters don’t matter. There can be always be an aberration in one quarter when the company has less profits. You should examine the reason for it and whether it can revert back on its growth.”
— Choices of asset classes is important too, says Jhunjhunwala. “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. you bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989 and then bought the Nasdaq [till before the dotcom bust], you would have made 33% compounded returns in three decades,” he says. “Warren Buffet rode the entire wave of those different asset classes.”
— “Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to change,” he says.
— Don’t get carried away short term market trends, he says. “In 1999, people used to buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele, Pentasoft, I used to buy Shipping Corporation and Bharat Electronics because I saw long-term value,” he adds. “Never get carried away by aberrations, recognize and respect them but do remember that the market corrects its aberration though it takes time.”